Civilization is often framed as the steady march of progress, a cycle of advancement and collapse, shaped by human ingenuity. Yet this comforting narrative ignores a deeper, more unsettling reality: stupidity, not intelligence, is the stronger cognitive force shaping history. Rationalism, while occasionally ascendant, is fleeting and often undermined by the very people who attempt to implement its ideals. The result is absurdity—an inevitability rather than an anomaly—emerging from the conflict between structured thought and cognitive limitation. Civilization does not evolve through a predictable cycle; instead, it builds upon the wreckage of its predecessors, layering mistakes atop mistakes in an ongoing process of accumulation, erosion, and repurposed ignorance.

I. The Fundamental Conflict: Stupidity vs. Rationalism

Stupidity is not merely the absence of intelligence—it is a force in itself, shaping human behavior more reliably than rational thought. It thrives because it is simple, instinctive, and socially reinforced. People gravitate toward cognitive shortcuts, seeking immediate gratification over long-term wisdom. Memory, attention span, and learning are all constrained by bias and self-interest, ensuring that even moments of clarity are diluted before they can be fully realized. Civilization’s problem is not just that rationalism is rare, but that it is fragile—constantly at odds with stupidity’s natural dominance.

When rationalism does emerge, it seeks to impose structure on chaos, offering predictive models and frameworks that assume intelligence will guide civilization forward. But these efforts are short-lived. Complex systems are conceived by brilliant minds, only to be filtered through layers of misunderstanding and incompetence. The rules are rewritten, the logic diluted, and the intended outcomes inevitably distorted by human limitations. Civilization is not a battle between intelligence and ignorance—it is an ongoing struggle in which rationalism occasionally gains ground, only to be overwhelmed by stupidity’s sheer inertia.

II. The Driving Force: Population and Expansion

If civilization were truly guided by intelligence, restraint would be a defining characteristic. Instead, the primary force driving human societies is biological expansion—population growth fueling complexity, not foresight. More people mean more interactions, more needs, more pressures, all of which demand solutions that are often rushed, incomplete, or inherently flawed.

Growth does not create wisdom; it creates momentum. Each new generation adds layers to the social structure, compounding misunderstandings and reinforcing historical distortions. Civilization is not an upward trajectory but a process of accumulation—new systems built atop old ones, whether or not those foundations were stable. The result is a cycle, not of renewal, but of exhaustion. More people lead to progress, which leads to problems, which leads to collapse. And yet, rather than reflecting on this pattern, civilization charges ahead, confident in its ability to control forces it never fully understands.

III. The Emergence of Absurdity

Absurdity is not an external force—it is the inevitable outcome of rational decisions being implemented by stupid people. Brilliant ideas may shape policies, technologies, and institutions, but the individuals tasked with carrying them out are often unprepared or incapable of grasping their nuances. The result is contradiction: progress that inadvertently accelerates collapse, efficiency that creates chaos, and foresight that magnifies unforeseen consequences.

This misalignment leads to the illusion of historical cycles. People perceive familiar patterns in the past, mistaking echoes for repetitions. In reality, history does not repeat—it accumulates, layering new forms of ignorance atop old failures. The search for cycles is simply humanity’s attempt to impose order on chaos, to believe that civilization follows a structured path rather than a blind, unrelenting charge into the unknown.

Unintended consequences reinforce absurdity at every turn. Every technological advancement, every social reform, every intellectual breakthrough introduces new vulnerabilities that did not exist before. Even the most thoughtful solutions carry risks that exceed the original problem. Civilization does not improve through progress—it becomes more complicated, less manageable, and ultimately more prone to collapse.

IV. Civilization as Deposition, Not Continuity

The most accurate metaphor for civilization is geological stratigraphy. Societies do not pass through cycles; they layer themselves over their predecessors, compressing knowledge, distorting reality, and selectively preserving fragments of the past. What survives is determined not by wisdom but by erosion—what remains intact long enough to be remembered.

History is not an archive of truth; it is a collection of myths curated by those in power. Records are shaped by rulers, by political agendas, by cultural biases, ensuring that the stories civilization tells itself are never neutral. Even archaeology—seemingly objective—only offers scattered remnants, often scavenged and repurposed by successor civilizations. What we know of the past is not an honest reflection, but a distorted reconstruction, pieced together from unreliable sources and missing fragments.

Civilization does not retain knowledge; it repurposes remnants. Socrates, for example, survives only through Plato’s interpretation—altered by bias, philosophy, and the passage of time. Entire civilizations are remembered not for their complexity but for what conveniently supports the narratives of those who came after.

V. Progress as an Exercise in Blindness

The belief that technological advancement leads to mastery is one of civilization’s great illusions. In reality, complexity does not ensure control—it magnifies instability. Each new invention, each scientific breakthrough, each societal reform introduces problems that could not have existed before.

The consequences of progress are rarely anticipated. Every attempt to solve a problem creates cascading effects, often amplifying the original issue rather than resolving it. Antibiotics revolutionized medicine but led to antibiotic resistance. Digital communication connected the world but introduced surveillance, misinformation, and new forms of social fragmentation. Nuclear power offered immense energy potential but also the means for planetary destruction.

Human intelligence operates within stupidity’s gravitational pull. Even the most brilliant minds cannot foresee every consequence, ensuring that progress is never simply forward—it is outward, expanding unpredictably into new territories of unintended complexity.

VI. The Mirage of Control in Human History

Civilization is built on the belief that humans can master their environment, dictate their future, and shape reality through reason. Yet every structure eventually collapses—not because of external forces, but because internal contradictions become insurmountable.

What we call continuity is, in reality, repurposing. The remnants of past civilizations are scavenged, their knowledge distorted, their foundations eroded by time. Survival is not achievement—it is delay, the postponement of inevitable failure.

Mastery is an illusion because civilization never truly understands the forces it manipulates. Like a match being lit or a grenade pin being pulled, actions are set in motion without full awareness of their repercussions. The future unfolds not because of planning, but because consequences take time to manifest.

VII. The Futility of True Understanding

The human desire to understand history is admirable but fundamentally flawed. What we call history is a mythology shaped by rulers, intellectuals, and biased observers. Even after the invention of writing, recorded knowledge served the purposes of power rather than the pursuit of truth.

No civilization truly recovers its past—it reconstructs narratives, interpreting fragments through contemporary biases. We do not learn from history; we reshape it, adjusting its meaning to fit present objectives. This endless rewriting reinforces ignorance rather than dispels it, ensuring that each generation continues to build upon the decaying remains of its predecessors.

Civilization does not move forward in a meaningful sense—it accumulates, erodes, and repurposes. Progress does not solve problems—it expands them. The conflict between stupidity and rationalism will never be resolved because rationalism is fleeting, while stupidity is permanent.

If civilization has a defining characteristic, it is absurdity—the inevitable product of intelligent ideas colliding with human limitations.

Disclaimer

This essay is a summary of a four-hour conversation with CoPilot, Microsoft’s Artificial Intelligence. The ideas are entirely my own, but CoPilot was indispensable in honing my thoughts into a cogent thesis. The entire essay was written by CoPilot, and was unedited by me. It represents a concise 1257-word synopsis of my evolving thinking on the topic, and I stand by every word. It would have taken me another day to distill our rambling discourse into this work.

I hope you enjoyed reading it.