Tag Archive | politics

Review of “The Gulag Archipelago: Volume 2” by Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn

This three-volume book set won a Nobel Prize, so there isn’t much for me to add about its impact on the literary world. It describes the Soviet forced-labor, penal system in an entertaining style, blending personal experience with anecdotes and documented evidence from other camp survivors. It is nonfiction but neither is it autobiographical nor a documentary; it falls in a no-mans-land between personal opinion and an angry and disillusioned tirade. The first volume addressed the Soviet judicial system at a basic level, through the eyes of those ground up in its gears, which turned without purpose or guidance.

This volume explores life in the “Special Camps”, slave-labor facilities reserved for “58s”–political prisoners. The author describes what it’s like to become less than human through a relentless campaign of dehumanization and torture that lasts years, if not decades, for those consigned by the state to develop natural resources in regions where no one would voluntarily go. It is a brutal story of starvation, continuous mental and physical abuse, and death at the hands of the “natives'” own government. The vast majority of the “sons of the gulag” died in remote regions of Siberia, or at the gates of Moscow itself in camps, often comprising tents (in -30F weather!) over a period spanning decades. The inhumane conditions were often equally applied to women and children, as well as men.

The author convincingly portrays the Gulag as a microcosm of Soviet society, and, in my opinion, the human race as a whole. He exquisitely reveals the interaction of individuals as they form a new society, even in such harsh conditions. Cheks (Soviet masters) and Zeks (the 58s), joined by hardened criminals and exiled “free” people need each other to survive in the topsy-turvy world of Soviet Russia, but it is a marriage born in hell and consummated on the wind-ravaged, frozen steppe of Asia.

The English version was, of course, translated from Russian; the translator did an excellent job finding English and American phrases to match the original text–for example, the loyal Communists who found themselves labeled 58s and accepted their imminent demise in a death camp as due to something they did unawares, were, in the author’s opinion, pigheaded. So true.

This is another long volume in a saga that could go on for many more volumes, but there is only one more which I am currently reading. However, this is a review of this book; and my opinion is that it is too long, often awkwardly written, and doesn’t include enough autobiographical details. The author is trying to (I think) distance himself from what he refers to in Volume 3 as (paraphrasing) one of the most profound periods of his life.

Read it at your own risk.

The Absurdity of City-States in an Age of Great Powers

In the theater of modern geopolitics, few roles are more paradoxical than that of the city-state. These micro-polities—compact nations dominated by a single urban center—often perform the rituals of sovereignty with grandeur disproportionate to their scale. They host embassies, wage influence campaigns, even project cultural or military force beyond their borders. But beneath the choreography lies a structural contradiction: they are actors on a global stage, delivering lines written by great powers.

The absurdity arises when city-states adopt grand ambitions or civilizational narratives while operating under strategic conditions that belie those aspirations. Whether their power is technological, financial, or ideological, their survival hinges not on independence but on the tolerance—or patronage—of larger states.

The Fiction of Sovereignty

To exist as a sovereign entity in the 21st century requires more than a flag and a central bank. It requires depth—geographic, demographic, and institutional. Modern city-states often lack all three. Their borders are tight; their populations small and sometimes imported; their economies specialized and vulnerable. They rely on shipping lanes they do not control, currencies they do not print, and security umbrellas they do not command.

And yet they persist, often more visibly and noisily than many larger states. This persistence is not proof of strength but of systemic accommodation—a kind of geopolitical performance art. They are the strategic fiction the world has agreed to believe.

The Typology of Fragile Giants

Across the globe, city-states come in many forms. Taiwan is a de facto independent democracy with a thriving economy, claimed by China and recognized diplomatically by almost no one. Singapore is a gleaming trade hub with authoritarian undercurrents, powered by global capital and encircled by larger neighbors. Monaco and Vatican City survive by pageantry and patronage, their sovereign theatrics tolerated for their symbolic or financial utility.

Even resource-rich examples like Qatar or Kuwait rely heavily on U.S. military protection, their independence underwritten by oil flows and foreign bases. Hong Kong, once a dazzling example of dual identity, has already been absorbed by its mainland sponsor. The list expands: DubaiMacauGibraltar—all emblematic of the same paradox. Grand architecture, global relevance, and strategic vulnerability coexist in uneasy truce.

City-State / Micro-StatePatron PowerStrategic RoleAbsurdity Vector
TaiwanUnited StatesSemiconductor hub, democratic identityClaimed by China; indispensable yet diplomatically isolated
SingaporeGlobal finance / U.S.Logistics & trade nexusLiberal branding with limited pluralism, reliant on capital flows
IsraelUnited StatesMilitary bastion, ideological projectSovereign yet dependent; democracy coexisting with occupation
Hong Kong (pre-2020)U.K. (legacy), ChinaFinancial gatewayDual system collapsed under imperial consolidation
DubaiUAE / Global capitalSpectacle, trade, soft powerImported labor and environmental unsustainability
Doha (Qatar)U.S. military / OPEC blocEnergy diplomacy, media soft powerTribal rule disguised as global diplomacy
Vatican CityCatholic diaspora / ItalySpiritual symbolismSovereignty without economy or enforcement power
GibraltarU.K.Naval and fiscal outpostColonial vestige amid post-colonial rhetoric
MonacoFrance / European eliteTax haven, luxury stateletSovereignty performed for capital and spectacle
KuwaitU.S. military umbrellaBuffer state and oil conduitIndependence reliant on permanent external defense

Israel: The Paradox at Full Volume

Among this constellation, Israel is the most geopolitically volatile. While not formally a city-state by landmass, its strategic center—Jerusalem and the Tel Aviv corridor—functions like one: hyper-centralized, fortified, globally enmeshed.

Israel is often described as the third kingdom around Jerusalem, following the Biblical monarchy and the Crusader state. Each was defined by sacred memory, siege mentalities, and patronage from distant powers. Today’s Israel continues that pattern: existentially threatened, externally funded, and narratively burdened.

Its contradictions are legion: a democracy that rules over a disenfranchised population; a beacon of Western values embedded in a region that never consented to its reappearance; a military superpower that constantly invokes existential peril. Its ideological core relies on permanence, yet its strategic logic is emergency-driven and externally buffered.

Great Power Dependencies, Performed as Autonomy

Israel exemplifies the absurdity of asserting unilateral sovereignty while depending on another power’s military technology, diplomatic shielding, and financial commitments. Its nuclear ambiguity is matched only by its moral ambiguity: a project of liberation that reproduces the machinery of occupation.

This is not unique. Taiwan depends on the shifting resolve of American foreign policy. Singapore’s independence thrives only within a globally stable order. Qatar and Kuwait claim bold sovereignty under foreign military umbrellas. These city-states are not inherently weak, but their structural independence is performative. Their strength lies in navigating an order they do not control.

Myth as Policy, Pretense as Posture

City-states often rely on founding myths—return, destiny, efficiency, divine favor—to compensate for their precarity. Israel’s myth is perhaps the most powerful and perilous. But myths cannot intercept missiles, nor reconcile internal contradictions. They can only delay reckoning.

That delay is costly. It encourages rigidity, precludes reform, and masks fragility. As the narrative drifts further from strategic reality, overreach becomes likely, and dependency becomes denial.

Conclusion: Sparks on a Powder Keg

In a world where great powers still define the rules—through blocs, treaties, markets, and weapons—the city-state is an anomaly dressed in sovereignty. Its flag waves high, but the ground beneath it belongs to someone else’s system.

The danger is not only absurdity. It’s ignition. When a small, hyper-exposed, myth-laden state stumbles into conflict, it can draw great powers with it. Taiwan and China. Israel and Iran. Qatar and rival Gulf regimes. What begins with a border clash or aerial strike may end with fleets, alliances, and conflagration.

City-states are not just relics of the past or marvels of efficiency—they are theater perched atop dynamite. And in the age of great powers, the match is never far from the stage.

The Paradox of Social Progress and Systemic Dysfunction

Introduction: The Embedded Nature of Inefficiency in Society

Throughout history, societies have demonstrated a paradoxical tendency: rather than actively eliminating inefficiencies, they integrate them into their operational structures. Governments, economies, and institutions do not necessarily fail due to incompetence or malice; instead, they adapt to dysfunctional elements, embedding inefficiency into their long-term stability. This phenomenon, termed Social Normalization Theory (SNT), suggests that inefficiency persists because cognitive limitations make structural overhaul prohibitively difficult.

Attempts to impose rational order on chaotic systems often yield paradoxical consequences, a concept explored through Absurdity Theory (AT). Even when leaders and reformers genuinely seek efficiency, systemic inertia, entrenched biases, and flawed heuristics ensure that dysfunction not only persists but becomes an inseparable aspect of the system itself. This essay explores how cognitive biases reinforce normalization, how rational interventions produce absurd outcomes, and how the prospect of AI-driven governance could both improve and entrench inefficiencies in new forms.

The Mechanics of Social Normalization Theory (SNT)

Cognitive Limitations as the Driving Force of Normalization

At the heart of Social Normalization Theory (SNT) is cognitive limitation—the fundamental constraint shaping human and institutional decision-making. Rather than processing complex systemic problems optimally, societies and individuals rely on simplified heuristics, rigid bureaucratic routines, and familiar structures to minimize cognitive strain. This preference for low-effort processing ensures that institutions adapt to inefficiencies rather than eliminating them.

This phenomenon unfolds in several ways:

  1. Complexity Reduction → Social, political, and economic structures trend toward simplification, favoring broad, digestible frameworks over nuanced governance.
  2. Institutional Inertia → Bureaucracies resist fundamental change, as cognitive overload discourages radical restructuring efforts.
  3. Social Acceptance Over Resistance → Conformity arises not from fear but from the mental ease of integrating into a flawed system rather than challenging it.
  4. Absorption of Dysfunction → Political and economic entities do not reject inefficiencies; they embed them into their operations, making dysfunction part of their functional equilibrium.

These mechanisms ensure that inefficiency does not lead to collapse but instead becomes a stable feature of governance and economic systems.

Cognitive Biases as the Psychological Basis for Normalization

Cognitive biases play a crucial role in ensuring that inefficiencies become embedded rather than eliminated.

  1. Complexity Reduction
    • Anchoring Effect → Early institutional assumptions shape long-term policies, even when outdated.
    • Mere Exposure Effect → Repeated exposure to flawed systems normalizes their inefficiencies.
    • Authority Bias → Deference to perceived experts reinforces entrenched structures.
  2. Institutional Inertia
    • Confirmation Bias → Bureaucracies filter out data that contradicts their established models.
    • Cognitive Dissonance → Contradictions are rationalized instead of being addressed.
    • Status Quo Bias → Resistance to change keeps inefficient structures intact.
  3. Social Acceptance Over Resistance
    • Groupthink → Individuals conform to dominant narratives, reinforcing systemic inefficiencies.
    • Bandwagon Effect → Popularity validates flawed economic or political policies.
    • Loss Aversion → Fear of destabilization discourages structural reform.
  4. Absorption of Dysfunction
    • Illusory Superiority → Decision-makers assume their expertise extends into areas where they lack competence.
    • Processing Speed Limitations → Governance systems struggle to adapt to new information in real time.
    • Memory Constraints → The inability to retain complex systemic critiques leads to simplistic policymaking.

These cognitive biases ensure that absurd inefficiencies persist despite widespread acknowledgment of their dysfunction.

Populist Revolt Against Inefficiency: The French Revolution

One of the clearest examples of populist reactionism against inefficient governance is the French Revolution (1789-1799). France’s monarchy, facing economic crisis, tax inequities, and bureaucratic failure, resisted structural reform, leading to populist backlash.

The monarchy’s reliance on oversimplified taxation schemes, its institutional resistance to reform, and the social normalization of aristocratic privilege ensured that inefficiency persisted until revolutionary forces dismantled the system. Much like today’s reactionary movements against neoliberal economic contradictions, the French Revolution exemplifies how normalization produces absurd consequences when pressures become unsustainable.

Absurdity Theory (AT): The Paradox of Governance

If Social Normalization Theory explains the persistence of inefficiency, then Absurdity Theory (AT) reveals its unintended consequences. AT explores how rational attempts to impose order on chaotic systems frequently exacerbate contradictions rather than solving them. Many from the information technology sector, believing in technological and market-driven solutions to societal problems, are at risk of increasing systemic contradictions by overestimating their expertise in social and economic policy. To them the world is a computer program that can be debugged, updated, and rebooted as needed.

For example:

  • Neoliberalism, intended to promote free markets, normalized corporate monopolization and economic consolidation.
  • DOGE (Department of Government Efficiency) aimed to streamline governance but resulted in mass confusion and bureaucratic entanglements.
  • Robert McNamara and his systems analysis approach to the conflict in Vietnam in the 1960s provided false metrics of success that promoted American involvement until the facts were incontrovertible, when the forces of North Vietnam overran the U.S. embassy in Saigon. Government policy doesn’t get less dysfunctional than that.

In each case, leaders sought efficiency, but the actual outcomes reinforced the dysfunction they intended to eliminate.

Accelerationism & Systemic Disruption

Accelerationism is a recent ideology accepted by both the left and the right. As the name implies, its proponents argue that intensifying existing trends can force necessary systemic evolution. However, such an extremist strategy will likely deepen the contradictions identified by Absurdity Theory because it doesn’t address the fundamental cognitive limitations of the human mind.

Believing that economic expertise translates into sociological mastery, accelerationists push reforms without accounting for long-term institutional inertia. Their interventions may reinforce the very inefficiencies they aim to disrupt. Accelerationism is akin to Libertarianism because it represents a theoretical model, rather offering practical solutions to the problems confronting political economies. It is thus another weapon in the arsenal of stupidity that can only lead to absurd results.

Upending an economy without understanding its operation is like shooting at a shadow in your home at night; it might be your spouse or a guest doing something you hadn’t foreseen. When applied to a society it can only contribute to dysfunction and make matters worse. However, we haven’t suffered its consequences yet. Is this in out future?

AI’s Role in Government Restructuring

Nations around the world have tried many strategies to address society’s needs through structural reforms such as Communism, Fascism, Capitalism, and hybrids such as implemented in China today. None of these has been successful as external pressure and internal inefficiencies have led to a global debt crisis for the great powers. The United States and China are facing irreconcilable social and fiscal problems that threaten to destabilize the world order within the decade, yet they continue to muddle on. Are there viable alternatives?

I mentioned one above–Accelerationism. Another untested approach is the use of Artificial Intelligence. AI has the potential to optimize bureaucratic functions, thus reducing redundancies and improving data-driven policy decisions. However, entrenched political structures may resist AI-driven governance, fearing transparency and loss of elite control.

While AI could address complexity reduction and eliminate some forms of institutional inertia, its implementation might recreate inefficiencies in new ways, reinforcing algorithmic biases and consolidating decision-making into opaque, technocratic systems.

Conclusion: The Future of Governance and Systemic Persistence

Social Normalization Theory and Absurdity Theory together suggest that governments, economies, and institutions do not fail outright—they evolve by absorbing inefficiencies rather than eliminating them. Cognitive biases ensure that flawed systems persist, and attempts at rational governance often produce paradoxical consequences. Is this the best we can do?

Pushing our political economies into crises, as espoused in various forms of Accelerationism is like playing chicken with a train. That scenario isn’t too different from the French Revolution, and we saw how that turned out. If global violence is to be avoided, we must seek technological solutions–but not in a desperate gasp as if the clock was ticking. We shouldn’t count on a myriad of advances across scientific and engineering fields to appear simultaneously.

Artificial Intelligence could serve as a potential corrective force, one that doesn’t rely on unforeseeable, multidisciplinary technological breakthroughs. We understand it fairly well. However, without intentional safeguards, it may normalize inefficiencies in new forms.

Unfortunately, history suggests that governments will continue adapting to dysfunction rather than eliminating it, making systemic reform possible only through crisis, external disruption, or radical restructuring.

I prefer the risk of a Brave New World to the certainty of global thermonuclear war…

Final Thoughts

CoPilot was an invaluable assistant on this work, but I had to do some editing on the final product. That’s primarily my fault because I introduced a complex topic at the last minute, while keeping the word limit to 1000 words. This is a brief treatment of a difficult subject, but reading the previous essays will clear up a lot of questions the reader might have. This is an ongoing conversation with an unbiased entity who is my assistant. I am enjoying working with CoPilot, and look forward to further collaboration in the future.

That’s my story and I’m sticking to it…

Social Normalization Theory (SNT): The Cognitive Basis for Systemic Adaptation to Inefficiency

Throughout history, societies have demonstrated a paradoxical tendency: rather than actively eliminating inefficiencies, they integrate them into their operational structures. Governments, economies, and institutions do not necessarily fail due to incompetence or malice; instead, they adapt to dysfunctional elements, embedding inefficiency into their long-term stability. This phenomenon, which we term Social Normalization Theory (SNT), suggests that inefficiency persists because cognitive limitations make structural overhaul prohibitively difficult.

SNT builds on the fundamental insight that human cognition prioritizes low-effort processing over comprehensive problem-solving. This tendency influences political, economic, and social decision-making, causing societies to absorb inefficiencies rather than eliminate them. The result is not outright collapse but the stabilization of dysfunction—normalizing inefficiencies until they become indistinguishable from the system itself.

This paper explores SNT as a diagnostic framework, analyzing how societies reinforce systemic inefficiencies across governance structures, economic models, and historical cycles. While SNT does not offer strict predictive capacity, it provides a hindcasting tool—allowing us to identify past patterns of inefficiency normalization and apply them to modern political economies.

The Core Principle: Cognitive Limitation as the Driving Force of Normalization

At the heart of SNT is cognitive limitation—the fundamental constraint shaping decision-making processes. Human cognition does not function optimally when confronted with complex systemic problems. Instead, individuals and institutions rely on streamlined heuristics, simplified narratives, and entrenched routines to minimize mental exertion.

This preference for low-effort processing drives societies toward normalization, where inefficient structures persist because overhauling them would require excessive cognitive energy. The process unfolds in several ways:

  1. Complexity Reduction → Social, political, and economic structures trend toward simplification, favoring broad, digestible frameworks over nuanced governance.
  2. Institutional Inertia → Bureaucracies resist fundamental change, as cognitive overload discourages radical restructuring efforts.
  3. Social Acceptance Over Resistance → Conformity arises not from fear but from the mental ease of integrating into a flawed system rather than challenging it.
  4. Absorption of Dysfunction → Political and economic entities do not reject inefficiencies; they embed them into their operations, making dysfunction part of their functional equilibrium.

These processes ensure that inefficiency does not lead to collapse but instead becomes a stable feature of the system.

Mechanisms of Normalization

Several mechanisms reinforce the persistence of inefficiency within political economies:

  • Resource Consolidation → Power and wealth concentrate in entrenched hierarchies, which resist disruption due to the cognitive burden of systemic overhaul.
  • Structural Inertia → Institutions prioritize stability over optimization, reinforcing inefficient governance structures.
  • Cognitive Load & Simplification → Societies default to low-effort solutions, causing complexity to erode in favor of streamlined narratives.
  • Social Integration Over Resistance → Rather than actively challenging inefficiencies, individuals conform to them as a practical adaptation strategy.
  • Disruptive Elements & Incentive Misalignment → Systems integrate dysfunction rather than eliminate it, reinforcing maladaptive behaviors.

These mechanisms ensure that inefficiencies do not simply persist but become structurally embedded within political economies.

Historicality: Examining Inefficiency Normalization Across Time

To validate SNT, we examine Historicality—the persistence of normalization trends across various political economies. Historical analysis suggests that societies do not actively eliminate dysfunction but absorb it, shaping policy frameworks around inefficiencies rather than directly reforming them.

Case Study 1: The Roman Empire

Rome’s transition from republic to autocracy exemplifies inefficiency normalization. Rather than reforming corrupt institutions, Rome centralized power under emperors, reinforcing dysfunction while maintaining stability. Military expansion became unsustainable, but instead of restructuring, Rome relied on taxation and mercenaries—adjusting its operations around inefficiencies rather than correcting them. Bureaucratic complexity increased over time, making dysfunction a standard practice rather than an anomaly.

Case Study 2: The British Empire

The British Empire maintained global dominance not through efficient governance but through bureaucratic normalization. Colonial administration absorbed inefficiencies by layering bureaucratic control over exploitative structures. Economic systems prioritized short-term extraction over sustainable trade, embedding dysfunction into global markets. The empire did not collapse dramatically—rather, it eroded gradually, as diplomatic maneuvering absorbed inefficiencies into post-imperial frameworks.

Modern Applications: Hindcasting Political Economies

If SNT is valid, it should apply not only to historical empires but also to contemporary political economies. Hindcasting reveals clear normalization patterns across modern governance systems:

  • Germany → Economic stagnation and industrial declines suggest an adaptation around inefficiency rather than active restructuring. Bureaucratic governance reinforces incremental change over disruption.
  • Hungary → Autocratic centralization consolidates political power without optimizing governance, reinforcing inefficient hierarchies. Electoral structures absorb dysfunction rather than eliminating it.
  • Denmark → Often cited as a model democracy, yet low innovation in political and economic frameworks suggests adaptation rather than radical transformation. Even successful systems normalize inefficiencies to maintain equilibrium.

These case studies confirm that Normalization of Inefficiency is a persistent historical force—societies stabilize dysfunction rather than seeking to reform it.

Predictive Utility: How SNT Explains Future Societal Trends

While prediction is difficult, SNT offers a hindcasting tool—providing indicators of inefficiency normalization in political economies. Societies that exhibit early-stage adaptation trends often stabilize dysfunction rather than restructuring. Early indicators include:

  • Power Overcentralization → Governance structures prioritize consolidation over competency-based leadership.
  • Simplification of Public Discourse → Political narratives erode into broad, repetitive themes, discouraging complexity.
  • Hierarchical Resistance to Change → Leaders persist beyond their functional lifespan due to the cognitive burden of systemic restructuring.
  • Economic Rigidity → Fiscal policies favor short-term adaptation rather than deep structural improvement.

If SNT holds, societies will continue integrating dysfunction rather than eliminating it, ensuring inefficiencies remain embedded in political economies.

Conclusion: SNT as a Diagnostic Framework

Rather than a predictive tool, SNT functions as a diagnostic framework—explaining how inefficiency becomes normalized rather than eliminated. Cognitive limitation ensures that inefficiencies are absorbed into systemic stability, reinforcing maladaptive behaviors rather than restructuring governance systems.

While SNT does not provide prescriptive solutions, it offers a unique analytical lens—challenging traditional assumptions about systemic failure and highlighting the persistence of dysfunction as a fundamental characteristic of political economies.This model reframes inefficiency not as a problem to be solved but as a feature to be understood—offering a new perspective on how governance, economies, and institutions evolve over time.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This essay is the second in a series based on conversations with CoPilot. I have relied on its knowledge of sociological trends but I am responsible for its content, and any conclusions I have drawn. It isn’t intended as a scientific discourse on the subject, and parts of it may well be repetitive. However, these conversations are always enlightening and leave me far more aware of complex problems, focusing my simplistic opinions into coherent ideas–which may be false.